Previously, I've noted similarities between the recent SPX and the 1994 SPX, which suggested a bottom at 1,197, and the April 2005 SPX, which suggested a bottom at 1,228. Last week, SPX fell to 1,219 and rallied strongly to close at 1,252 Friday. Currently, intermediate-term technical indicators suggest SPX may have reached or is close to an intermediate-term bottom and may begin a rally soon. Below is a two-year daily chart of SPX (black line and right scale) and NYSI (blue line and left scale) with 50-day MAs of VIX NYMO and CPC above and below the price chart. The gray arrow indicates similarities between the current SPX and the Apr 2005 SPX. The indicators suggest there may be a final "wash-out" below 1,200 or a continuation of the volatile trading range e.g. between 1,220 and 1,260 next week. SPX may then begin an uptrend for at least several weeks. However, fundamentally, SPX may be in a volatile range throughout the summer, rather than rally to new highs, because the general price level is high enough to carry on uncertainty about monetary policy. Consequently, SPX upside may be limited, e.g. 1,280 or 1,290, although all the intermediate-term technical indicators should turn bullish in June or July. Currently, the NYMO 50-day MA and daily NYSI have not turned bullish, although the CPC 50-day MA is at an all-time bullish high. Free charts available at PeakTrader.com Forum Index Market Forecast section. |
